Since the so-called ‘Mediterranean migration crisis’ in 2015-16, the member states of the European Union with few exceptions have seen a marked shift to the right in the voting behavior of their electorates as existing and sometimes new authoritarian populist parties have identified the arrival of refugees and irregular migrants on Europe’s shores as a threat to security, social order and even ‘Christian civilization’. Although the numbers seeking sanctuary in a European continent of some 550 million+ people are not significant in world terms (only 7 million of the world’s 103 million forcibly displaced people were to be found in Europe in 2021) the political consequences of these new arrivals have been profound, dramatic and long-lasting. The successful campaign for ‘Brexit’ in the 2016 referendum on future UK membership of the European Union, and the EU-Turkey deal which led to a significant reduction in small boat crossings to Greece in return for large refugee aid payments from Brussels, have promoted a ‘Fortress Europe’ security agenda above concerns for human rights and compliance with the international refugee convention and international law. In this lecture, I explore why the presence of a small percentage of ‘uninvited guests’ has been much more of a threat to liberal democracy and the rule of law in Europe than it has been to the stability of governments and party systems in other parts of the world, why the presence of larger numbers of war displaced Ukrainians is generally not seen as problematic by neighboring European countries, and what are the long-term consequences for rights-based democracies in Europe and ‘the Global North’ in general in the face of increased population displacement pressures brought about by conflict, poverty and climate change.

Speaker
Simon Parker, Professor in Politics, Co-Director of the Centre for Urban Research, Co-Chair of the Migration Network at the University of York

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