Talk by Rohit Lamba (Economics, Cornell University)

India's pursuit of great power status faces a fundamental paradox: the economic nationalism that shapes its development strategy simultaneously undermines the global integration necessary for achieving its international ambitions. This article examines how India's current blanket commitment to strategic autonomy and self-reliance, while producing notable achievements, such as in digital infrastructure and financial inclusion, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi (2014-2024), ultimately constrains its ability to project power and influence globally. Drawing on developmental state theory, nationalism and civilizational-state typologies, and comparative analysis with East Asian success stories, I argue that India's economic nationalism operates through four transmission mechanisms—worldview constraints, state capacity limitations, decision-making pathologies, and foreign perception costs—that create a self-reinforcing feedback loop limiting its global reach. Highlighting India's distinctive political economy model as a premature and pluralist democracy specializing in high-skilled services, I argue that the country's development trajectory may be better served by strategies that leverage its democratic strengths and pursue an incremental but consistent reforms by consensus strategy while heeding Deng Xiaoping’s dictum of "hide your strength, bide your time" on the international stage. The analysis suggests that while India's fundamentals ensure respectable growth rates of 5-6%, achieving the 8-9% growth needed to fulfill its global ambitions before demographic dividends dissipate will require transcending the current overtly nationalist framework in the economic realm.

Rohit Lamba is an assistant professor of economics at Cornell University. He has previously held academic positions at the Pennsylvania State University, University of Pennsylvania, and New York University Abu Dhabi. He did his PhD in economics at Princeton University. He was also an economist at the Office of the Chief economic Adviser to the Government of India. His research spans economic theory and economic development. He is the co-author of the best-selling book Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future.