Why do isolated latent proliferators insist on retaining some of their nuclear capabilities in nonproliferation settlements? Prominent scholarship on nuclear proliferation shows that weak states have used latent nuclear capabilities like uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing to draw Western states into negotiations and extract concessions. But when theories of nuclear latency are applied to isolated states like North Korea and Iran, scholars undertheorize those regimes’ political aspirations and black box their demands as generic “rewards” for nuclear restraint. This leads scholars to overlook the credibility deficits of the political commitments that superpowers make in nonproliferation agreements, and to misinterpret the nuclear-latency strategies of isolated regimes seeking to address those credibility challenges. This article analyzes the technopolitical strategies that North Korea and Iran used as they sought to keep Western states engaged and hold them to their commitments. Through a mixture of technical and political analysis, I identify a repertoire of nuclear latency strategies by which both states have sought to simultaneously signal nuclear capability and restraint while retaining nuclear latency in reserve to incentivize future engagement from the West.

About the speaker

Christopher Lawrence is Assistant Professor of Science, Technology and International Affairs in Georgetown University's Walsh School of Foreign Service. He studies the histories of U.S. nonproliferation engagement with North Korea and Iran, as well as the epistemic communities in the West that create knowledge about those countries’ nuclear programs. His academic writing has been published in International Security, Social Studies of Science, Journal of Applied Physics, and IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science. He has also written policy analysis for various online publications, including Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and War on the Rocks.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies