Knowing where, when and for how long mallard ducks – natural carriers of avian influenza – stop and rest as they migrate can help predict the probability that they will spread bird flu to backyard poultry flocks.

The finding, from a Feb. 18 study published in the journal Scientific Reports, takes an important step in explaining the transmission dynamics of bird flu, a strain also known as Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), and could one day inform people with backyard poultry of the best times to take extra precautions to isolate their birds from wild ones.