“The record of sanctions at deterring war is pretty mixed, and one of the reasons for that is that it’s quite difficult to calibrate, to sort of… really arrange the pressure exactly right,” says Nicholas Mulder, assistant professor of history. “If you make a threat that is too weak, then it doesn’t deter. But if you make a threat that is very strong, then you might not be actually able to deliver on that threat, and it might not be credible.”