From Iran's Revolutionary Process to the Unraveling of the "Axis of Resistance" - Challenging Long-Held Assumptions about the Islamic Republic. This lecture explores the complex dynamics reshaping the Islamic Republic of Iran, drawing on the findings of years-long research that challenges conventional assumptions about the country’s domestic stability and foreign power. Since 2018, Iran has arguably experienced a “long-term revolutionary process” culminating in the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising. Four interconnected crises—economic, ecological, gender, and political—are fueling this revolutionary process, revealing a state whose apparent stability masks deep volatility. Internationally, Iran’s long-standing strategy of leveraging managed conflict with the West and forging partnerships with China and Russia has proven fragile. The unraveling of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” following “October 7” and the latest June 2025 12-Day War with Israel dramatically weakened the Islamic Republic’s regional influence and credibility. The lecture examines how entrenched narratives—authoritarian stability, rural and lower-class regime loyalty, the reformist–conservative dichotomy, and regional invincibility—fail to explain Tehran’s current challenges. By analyzing the interplay between domestic pressures and foreign-policy miscalculations, this talk offers a fresh understanding of a regime at a historic crossroads. About the speaker Dr. (PhD) Ali Fathollah-Nejad is a German–Iranian political scientist and author, working at the intersection of Middle East politics, international relations, and development studies. He is Founder and Director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG), a research network and voluntary-based think-tank devoted to exploring regional and global transformations, while promoting a new Western foreign policy that reconciles interests and values. He teaches Middle East politics and international security at the Hertie School – The University of Governance in Berlin. Among his publications are, most recently, the much-acclaimed (“best 10 books” of spring 2025, Der Tagespiegel daily) Iran – How the West is Betraying its Values and Interests [in German], The Islamic Republic in Existential Crisis (2023, European Union Institute for Security Studies), the much-acclaimed book Iran in an Emerging New World Order (2021, Palgrave), and The Islamic Republic of Iran Four Decades On (2020, Brookings), where he suggested the start of a long-term revolutionary process in Iran. Fathollah-Nejad is also the former Iran expert of the Brookings Institution in Doha, the German Council on Foreign Relations, and the American University of Beirut, as well as a 2022 McCloy Fellow on Global Trends of the American Council on Germany (ACG). He holds a Ph.D. from the Department of Development Studies at SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) and was the winner of the 2016/17 post-doctoral fellowship of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Iran Project. He has taught, among others, at universities in London, Berlin, Doha, Tübingen, and Prague. The author of around 300 articles in English, German and French – with translations into a dozen other languages –, Fathollah-Nejad is also a frequent commentator for leading outlets across the globe. Host Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies Register for the virtual talk: https://cornell.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_e7JrE2rEQE6HO8G1l42Utw

What explains the fact that the humanitarian response in some crises is well funded, while other emergencies are largely neglected? How do recent funding cuts affect the work of humanitarian organizations and the lives of affected people?

This lecture will give an overview of the literature on funding allocations of humanitarian aid, focusing on three groups of factors: humanitarian needs, donor countries’ interests, and media coverage. A recent study will be presented of why donors fund some humanitarian emergencies but neglect others. The study uses a novel statistical approach, relying on an underused dataset and considering funding requirements per emergency. While humanitarian needs and donor interests play a role, the most consistent factor influencing how donors allocate their funding is media coverage.

The lecture will provide an overview of practical ways of overcoming imbalances in funding allocations and delivering aid in more effective ways. Pooled funds like the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) can provide funding more quickly and more strictly based on needs. CERF relies heavily on tools to make funding decisions in a systematic, evidence-based way, and is the biggest financier of anticipatory action globally.

As funding for humanitarian action is being cut, it is more important than ever to ensure the most urgent humanitarian needs of affected people are identified and addressed.

About the speaker

Nicolas Rost is head of programme for the UN’s global humanitarian fund, CERF. At the Central Emergency Response Fund, Nico works on providing humanitarian financing as quickly as possible for new emergencies, for anticipatory and early action, and for neglected and underfunded crises. Previously, he worked on evaluations of humanitarian programmes, on coordinating development programmes in Palestine, humanitarian funds in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Yemen, for the UN’s refugee agency in the Central African Republic and Geneva, and for a German NGO in Madagascar. Nico is also a visiting scientist at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative where his research focuses on early warning signs of humanitarian crises. He holds a Master’s degree in political science from the University of North Texas, and a Master’s and PhD in politics and public administration from the University of Konstanz. He has published a book and, together with his co-authors, articles on anticipating displacement, genocide and civil war, mediation and peacekeeping, in the International Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, and other journals. He lives in Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and their three sons.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

Co-host

Africana Studies and Research Center

Co-sponsor

Institute for African Development

The Critical Language Scholarship (CLS) Program provides fully funded immersive summer programs for U.S. undergraduate and graduate students to learn languages of strategic importance to the United States’ national security, economic prosperity, and engagement with the world. Each summer, over 500 American students enrolled at colleges and universities across the United States spend approximately eight weeks studying one of a dozen languages either overseas or virtually. Participants gain the equivalent of one year of language study, as the CLS Program maximizes language and cultural instruction in an intensive environment.

Can't attend? Email programs@einaudi.cornell.edu for more information.

Nuclear issues are forever. Whether dealing with the Cold War nuclear arms race, or the legacy of nuclear testing in the Pacific, nuclear challenges persist for decades. This presentation looks at two case studies in nuclear history. First, exploring the intense nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and Russia that began in the 1990s, only to founder on the rocks of new international realities. In all, 50,000 metric tons of highly enriched uranium, the equivalent of 20,000 nuclear weapons, were taken out of Russian stockpiles before the program ended.

The Cold War also ushered in an age of nuclear testing, including the “Bravo Test,” the most powerful hydrogen bomb tested by the United States. The presentation focuses on “Bravo” and the 66 other tests in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the consequences that continue to reverberate.

The presentation highlights some of the Pacific environmental champions who see climate change as existential a threat as the nuclear legacy. Reppy Fellows will recognize the cross currents in diplomacy, conflict, and environment that make today’s global environmental problems so vexing.

Tom Armbruster served as Nuclear Affairs Officer at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow and Ambassador to the Marshall Islands. Insights into these assignments will give anyone considering a career in diplomacy an inside look at the realities, complexities, and opportunities in a Foreign Service career.

About the speaker

As a Foreign Service Officer, Tom served in Helsinki, Finland; Havana, Cuba; Moscow, Russia; Nuevo Laredo, Mexico; Dushanbe, Tajikistan; Vladivostok, Russia; and Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands. After retiring as Ambassador to the Marshall Islands (2012-2016) Tom served in senior advisor roles at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations and U.S. Embassy Nuku`alofa, Tonga. He led Inspector General missions to Colombia, Denmark, Chad, Mauritania, Nepal and Bangladesh.

Foreign Service highlights include leading a counternarcotics delegation to Kabul, serving as lead negotiator for a treaty in force with Russia on emergency response, and attending “Cool School,” an arctic survival course while “Polar Affairs Officer.” He is the only American diplomat to travel to the Soviet Union by kayak, paddling with a group of Finns from Helsinki to Tallinn.

Mr. Armbruster holds Masters’ degrees from the Naval War College and St. Mary’s University. He speaks Russian and Spanish. Publications include articles in State Magazine, the Foreign Service Journal, Above and Beyond, Chesapeake Bay and the book How to Become an Ambassador. He lives in Ithaca with his wife Kathy, Marshallese dog “Skipjack” and Russian cat “Vika."

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

Armed militant organizations and affiliated peaceful activist groups often co-exist within dissident movements. Although states tend to identify and repress activists within these movements as fronts for their militant counterparts, there is little research on how activist actions or the repression they face affect support for militant organizations. In this paper, I argue that state repression of peaceful activism boosts support for militant organizations, whilst activist mobilizing propaganda promoting peaceful means diminishes support for them. To test these expectations, I conducted a list experiment in Southeast Turkey, where the militant organization PKK and the activist political party HDP garner significant support. My research design presents sympathizer individuals with treatment videos that vary in the degrees of state repression of activists, and activist mobilizing propaganda. Results demonstrate that the state repression of peaceful activists leads to an immediate increase in support for the militant organization. Conversely, when activists advocate for peaceful mobilization, support for the militant organization diminishes. These findings demonstrate that the immediate attitudinal influence of powerful activist rhetoric is the opposite of what the state justification for its repression rests upon: if activists can convey their calls for peaceful mobilization without state repression, they can diminish support for their militant counterparts.

About the speaker

Ipek Sener studies international relations, conflict and security, great power politics, and quantitative political methodology. Her projects explore the relationship between illegal militant organizations and legal activist organizations within dissident movements, investigating how activist actions influence support for militancy and how militant propaganda can radicalize activists. Another set of projects analyzes how international actors, institutions, and great power competition influence the likelihood and microdynamics of civil war. She uses experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational designs, as well as text-as-data methods in her work. Ipek is a College Fellow at Harvard University, and she earned her Ph.D. in Political Science from Washington University in St. Louis.

Host
Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

Civil wars become international conflicts when outside states provide support to rebel groups. Sometimes, external intervention is driven by affinity for the rebel group and a desire to achieve the rebel group’s goals. Sometimes, however, external intervention is driven by tensions on other issues, for example, international rivalry, territorial disputes, or regional leadership. We develop a game-theoretic model to understand the conditions under which a government may break a rebel-external state coalition through bargaining on an international issue. We provide evidence of the empirical relevance of our theory through statistical analysis of civil conflicts, along with an examination of early Libyan intervention in the Chadian civil war. Our argument provides new insight on the connections between domestic and international conflict and the outcomes of internationalized civil wars

About the speaker

Brett Ashley Leeds is Radoslav Tsanoff Professor of Political Science at Rice University. She is currently co-Editor-in-Chief of International Organization. Leeds’s research focuses on the design and effects of international agreements (particularly military alliances), and also on connections between domestic politics and foreign policy. She is the co-author of Domestic Interests, Democracy, and Foreign Policy Change (with Michaela Mattes, Cambridge Elements in International Relations series, 2022). In 2008, Leeds received the Karl Deutsch Award from the International Studies Association, which is presented annually to a scholar in International Relations within ten years of Ph.D. who is judged to have made the most significant contribution to the study of International Relations and Peace Research. In 2019, Leeds won the Lifetime Achievement Award from the Conflict Processes Section of APSA in recognition of scholarly contributions that have fundamentally improved the study of conflict processes. She served as President of the International Studies Association during 2017-18, President of the Peace Science Society during 2018-19, and as Chair of the Rice University Department of Political Science from 2015-2025.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

The Laidlaw Scholars Leadership and Research Program promotes ethical leadership and international research around the world—starting with the passionate leaders and learners found on campuses like Cornell. Open to first- and second-year students, the two-year Laidlaw program provides generous support to carry out internationally focused research, develop leadership skills, engage with community projects overseas, and become part of a global network of like-minded scholars from twenty universities worldwide.

At this session, we'll share more information about the program, including Cornell's cohort-based intercultural community-engaged learning summer experience in Ecuador, and tips for writing a successful application. Applications are due January 12, 2026.

Applicants are also strongly encouraged to attend a Q+A webinar about the summer experience in Ecuador. Q+A webinars are scheduled for November 5 and November 6.

Register here. Can’t attend? Contact programs@einaudi.cornell.edu.

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The Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies hosts info sessions for graduate and for undergraduate students to learn more about funding opportunities, international travel, research, and internships. View the full calendar of fall semester sessions.

The Laidlaw Scholars Leadership and Research Program promotes ethical leadership and international research around the world—starting with the passionate leaders and learners found on campuses like Cornell. Open to first- and second-year students, the two-year Laidlaw program provides generous support to carry out internationally focused research, develop leadership skills, engage with community projects overseas, and become part of a global network of like-minded scholars from twenty universities worldwide.

At this session, we'll share more information about the program, including Cornell's cohort-based intercultural community-engaged learning summer experience in Ecuador, and tips for writing a successful application. Applications are due January 12, 2026.

Applicants are also strongly encouraged to attend a Q+A webinar about the summer experience in Ecuador. Q+A webinars are scheduled for November 5 and November 6.

Can’t attend? Contact programs@einaudi.cornell.edu.

***

The Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies hosts info sessions for graduate and for undergraduate students to learn more about funding opportunities, international travel, research, and internships. View the full calendar of fall semester sessions.