Disasters like droughts, earthquakes, floods, and storms are becoming more frequent and intense, among others due to climate change. Consequentially, both decision makers and scholars are increasingly concerned about the security implications of disasters. At the same time, the number of armed conflicts globally is on a historical height. However, as of yet, little is known on how disaster impacts the dynamics of such conflicts. In other words: How do conflict parties react if a disaster strikes a civil war zone?

Tobias Ide presents insights from his recent book on this question, drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from 31 civil wars in 21 countries. Among others, he finds that disasters open opportunities for rebel groups, that disasters can also facilitate conflict de-escalation and diplomacy, that situational (rather than structural) factors shape the responses of conflict parties, and that gender is a mediating variable between disasters and conflict dynamics.

About the Speaker

Tobias Ide is a Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Murdoch University Perth and a Specially Appointed Professor at Hiroshima University. Holding PhDs in Political Science and Earth Science, he has worked intensively on the intersections of climate change, the environment, peace, and conflict. Tobias has published over 60 journals articles since 2014, including in International Security, Journal of Peace Research, and Nature Climate Change. In 2023, he received the ISA Emerging Peace Studies Scholar Award and the International Science Prize for Peace and Ecology in the Anthropocene.

Recent publications:

Catastrophes, Confrontations, and Constraints: How Disasters Shape the Dynamics of Armed Conflicts. MIT Press (2023)

Rise or Recede? How Climate Disasters Affect Armed Conflict Intensity. International Security 47(4), 50-79 (2023).

The Future of Environmental Peace and Conflict Research. Environmental Politics 32 (6), 1077-1103 (2023).

Climate, Women, and Conflict. Global Studies Quarterly 3 (3), ksad039 (2023).

Climate Change and Australia's National Security. Australian Journal of International Affairs 77 (1), 26-44 (2023).

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Host
Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

How disparate humanitarian agents leverage AI tools to cultivate collaborative, anticipatory, and timely aid responses during conflicts.

This empirical study examines an overlooked yet deeply disconcerting dilemma facing humanitarian organizations operating in conflict zones. As complex conflicts evolve into new and numerous demands on humanitarian agents, they are often met with specialized, independent, organized efforts. But these well-meaning efforts often devolve into piecemeal, un-coordinative, post-hoc responses that are characterised by effort duplication, and even inadvertent violations of the 'leave no one behind' humanitarian principle. The elusive 'holy grail' in humanitarian work is to find a way to transform such uncoordinated and post-hoc efforts into an anticipatory, coordinative template of interpretation and action (i.e. collaborative praxis).

This multi-site digital ethnography examines one such transformative process - a Human AI (HAI) assemblage consisting of various human agents (NGOs, Transnational humanitarian agents, governments), and machine intelligences (NLP and predictive analytics tools) that collaboratively develop shared interpretation and anticipatory action trajectories for two ongoing humanitarian conflicts zone (Sudan and Gaza). This study finds that human and machine interactions here are distinguished by opposite mechanisms of sensemaking convergence (i.e. converging interpretations over 'temporal flow' of crises, agreements over institutional factors that exacerbate crisis, etc) and institutional divergence (i.e. Intentionally maintaining unique institutional subject positions, 'baking in' different normative understandings into models etc). The insights from our grounded, processual model contribute to literatures on AI coordination, Humanitarian organizations, and sensemaking analysis.

About the Speakers

Shivaang Sharma is a PhD candidate on Collective Intelligence Systems and Adjunct lecturer on Social Innovation at UCL School of Management, UK. He is currently working alongside a cluster of INGOs to monitor and respond to ongoing armed conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. He has 11 years of experience of working in conflict zones for organizations including UN-OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), IMMAP, WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature). He is leading an initiative to build a collaborative community around the use of AI tools across humanitarian sectors.

Angela Aristidou specialises in strategy and entrepreneurship at University College London's School of Management and she is a Fellow (Faculty Affiliate) at Stanford University's Digital Economy Lab, in the Human-centred AI Centre. Angela is an international award-winning academic (among other: Fulbright; Stanford University's CASBS), she is solo grant-holder for a UK Research Innovation Future Leader Fellowship (approx. £1.7 UK million pounds; 2020-2028) and she currently leads a team of researchers examining digital innovations in the UK, USA, China and Canada. Angela is an expert in how private tech companies, governments and public sector organisations, nonprofits and communities collaborate to innovate for public good.

Register to attend the seminar here

Host
Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Bohuslav Ečer and the Crime of Aggression

Finnemore and Sikkink’s 1998 ‘norm life cycle’ model has inspired a substantial literature investigating norms’ emergence and staying power. However, because their model hinges on Sunstein’s ‘tipping point’ theory, Adam Lerner, Associate Professor at UMass Lowell, argues it biases scholarship towards powerful actors with resources to spread norms, often overlooking the micro-foundations of norm entrepreneurship—intellectual work involved in reshaping ideas and communicating them to relevant audiences. To remedy this gap, the research team argues for a distinction within their model between norm entrepreneurs and norm popularizers and demonstrates how research into the former can promote a fruitful partnership between IR and work in the history of political thought (HPT) tracing inflection points in norms’ life cycles.

This presentation will illustrate this argument with multi-archival research (conducted in the US, UK, and Czechia) into Bohuslav Ečer, Czechoslovakia’s representative at the 1943-1948 UN War Crimes Commission. Though much of his memory has been lost to history due to both communist repression and the American bias of existing scholarship, the presentation will demonstrate Ečer was a pivotal norm entrepreneur with regards to the criminality of aggressive war. Drawing on previously uncited evidence, we show how Ečer’s ideas developed and spread, shaping US wartime policy and, ultimately, the foundational 1945 Nuremberg Charter. Appreciation of Ečer’s role both contributes to our understanding of a pivotal norm in international criminal law’s emergence and enriches our theoretical understanding of norms’ life cycles.

About the Speaker
Adam B. Lerner is Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of the Bachelor of Liberal Arts Program at UMass Lowell. His research focuses on international political theory, and he is particularly interested in the legacy of mass violence in the international system and tools for global repair and reconciliation. His first book, From the Ashes of History: Collective Trauma and the Making of International Politics (OUP, 2022) received the Peter Katzenstein Book Award from Cornell, the Edgar S. Furniss Award from Ohio State, the ISA International Ethics Book Award, and was runner up for the ISA Theory Book Prize and the ECPR Hedley Bell Book Prize. His refereed articles have appeared in International Studies Quarterly, European Journal of International Relations, Perspectives on Politics, International Affairs, International History Review, and International Theory, among other outlets. He received a BA from Cornell University and an MPhil and PhD from the University of Cambridge.

Host
Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Co-sponsor
Institute for European Studies

Planning for study abroad? No matter how you identify or where you're studying, early planning is the key to a successful study abroad experience.

Join us for a facilitated discussion with fellow students about navigating your intersectional identities while studying abroad. A panel of returned study abroad students will share their experiences, knowledge, and advice for expressing your whole self in a different culture. This is a great opportunity to ask questions and think about your identity in a new context—outside the norms of Cornell, your hometown, or your home country.

This global freedom of expression event is an opportunity to explore critical issues related to free expression of your identity and how you encounter the world. As a student abroad, you have a deeply personal chance to experience cultural exchange, collaborate productively in a global context, and have challenging conversations while staying true to yourself—all vital skills for successful participation in democracy.

The Office of Global Learning is here to help as you think about your identity in a global context, learn about new norms and ways of life, and find the support you need.

In-Person Event

Attend the panel in Statler Hall 165

The Geopolitics of Empire and Espionage

Alfred "Al" William McCoy, the Fred Harvey Harrington Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin, will focus on the interplay between geopolitics and individual historical actors, explaining how geopolitical ruptures in hegemonic control during the Cold War created a momentary void in the world order that allowed a latter-day “man on the spot” the autonomy to put his fingerprints on the crime scenes of this global conflict.

Instead of the gentlemen adventurers like James Brooke and T.E. Lawrence of the British imperial age for whom the term was coined, our Cold War analogues are usually covert operatives. Like Africa, Southeast Asia during postwar decolonization abounds in these characters, so my talk will present the general thesis and some case studies from Southeast Asia—the region where the most famous, and notorious, of these figures first appeared.”

This seminar is part of the Gatty Lecture Series.

About the speaker
Alfred "Al" William McCoy is an American historian and educator. He is the Fred Harvey Harrington Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He specializes in the history of the Philippines, foreign policy of the United States, European colonization of Southeast Asia, illegal drug trade, and Central Intelligence Agency covert operations. He is the author of In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power. His newest book is To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change (Dispatch Books).

Host
Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Co-Host
Southeast Asia Program

Evaluating Public Perceptions

This discussion, based on the book The Legitimacy of Drone Warfare: Evaluating Public Perceptions (Routledge 2024), will examine public perceptions of the legitimacy of drones, and how this affects countries’ policies on and the global governance of drone warfare. Scholars recognize that legitimacy is central to countries’ use of drones, and political officials often characterize strikes as legitimate to sustain their use abroad.

In this discussion, Dr. Paul Lushenko introduces his recent book, which introduces and tests an original middle-range theory that allows scholars, policy-makers, and practitioners to understand how evolving patterns of drone warfare globally shape the public’s perceptions of legitimate strikes. Rather than relate drone warfare to a platform or counterterrorism strikes only, as experts often do, Dr. Lushenko argues that drone warfare is best understood as a function of the unique ways that countries use and constrain strikes. By updating theories of drone warfare, Dr. Lushenko provides a generalizable way to understand public perceptions of legitimacy in cross-national contexts, especially among democratic political regimes that are prefigured on political officials’ accountability for the use of force abroad.

About the Speaker

Paul Lushenko is an Assistant Professor and Director of Special Operations at the U.S. Army War College.

Host

Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies