Does evoking historical parallels change public opinion regarding foreign policy?

Seeking international support to counter Russia’s February 2022 invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly addressed foreign politicians and public in several democratic nations. Media coverage paid special attention to his explicit comparison of Ukraine’s current situation to salient historical events in the audiences' countries.

Since public opinion can influence foreign policy decisions in democracies, we investigate whether evoking the past of the audience's country effectively increases popular support for aiding Ukraine.

Anil Menon and colleagues conducted survey experiments simultaneously in four countries where Zelensky delivered speeches rich in historical parallels – Germany and Israel (Holocaust), United Kingdom (WWII), and the United States (Pearl Harbor and 9/11). Exposure to excerpts from Zelensky's speeches triggered distinctive emotional reactions in all countries consistent with the content tailored for each country.

Only in Israel did exposure increase public support for bolstering Ukraine’s war efforts. Thus, while rhetoric emphasizing past-present commonalities might evoke emotional reactions, its persuasive potential appears limited.

About the Speaker

Anil Menon is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Merced. Previously, he was a Klarman Postdoctoral Fellow in the Department of Government at Cornell University and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Center for the Resolution of Intractable Conflict at Harris Manchester College, Oxford University. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science at the University of Michigan – Ann Arbor.

His research is motivated by three broad questions. How do traumatic experiences – ranging from interstate wars and forced migration to public health crises – shape short- and long-term political attitudes, behaviors, and institutions? What are the historical roots of contemporary patterns of economic and political development? Are rhetorical appeals to the past persuasive?

Cohosts

Institute for European Studies

Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Assessing Paths to Peace

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine. The ensuing war has yielded many surprises, including Russia’s botched invasion, division and instability in Russian military leadership, and strength of the Ukrainian defense. Nonetheless, many questions remain about the conflict and prospects for peace. What would be needed to achieve real peace in Ukraine? Can we identify a viable path to peace that does not further injustices against the Ukrainian people, and that does not embolden similar invasions by Russia or other expansionist states? What role has sanctions played in shaping the conflict and alliances around the world, and what role can they play in the future? How are ethnic politics evolving within Russia? Panelists will speak to these and related questions, with ample time allocated for discussion with the audience.

Panelists

Nicholas Mulder, Assistant Professor and Milstein Faculty Fellow, Department of History, Cornell UniversityCristina Florea, Assistant Professor, Department of History, Cornell UniversityLeila Wilmers, Postdoctoral Associate, Department of Sociology, Cornell UniversityModerator

Matthew Evangelista, President White Professor of History and Political Science, Department of Government

Host

Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Cosponsor

Institute for European Studies

Sharif Hozoori, IIE-SRF fellow and visiting scholar at the Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies' South Asia Program will discuss his research about the failure of liberal democracy in Afghanistan due to the ruling elite's overt ethnocentrism.

Ethnocentrism has been present throughout Afghanistan's political history, but it peaked during President Ashraf Ghani's tenure after the establishment of a democratic regime in 2001. Ghani enacted policies that concentrated power around three individuals: himself, the national security advisor, and the Director General of the administrative office of the President, essentially creating a "Republic of Three Persons" or a "sinister triangle" in Afghanistan. These actions had a profoundly catastrophic effect on the evolution of democratic governance in the country.

About the Speaker

Sharif Hozoori holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the Center for International Politics, Organization, and Disarmament in the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He was a professor of International Relations and taught both undergraduate and graduate students in Afghanistan before leaving the country after the Taliban takeover in August 2021. Currently, he is an IIE-SRF fellow and visiting scholar at the Einaudi Center's South Asia Program at Cornell University. His research areas are Afghanistan politics and foreign policy, identity politics, South Asia and Middle East politics, cultural studies, and conflict resolution and peace.

Host

Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies

Cosponsor

South Asia Program

What lessons have Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping drawn from the Soviet collapse, and what lessons are they failing to draw? Renowned historian Stephen Kotkin, Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and Professor in History and International Affairs emeritus at Princeton University, will talk about how we might see the Soviet collapse, looking back more than three decades. Was the collapse predictable? Did a new world order emerge, and is one emerging now? Could such a collapse be repeated? How can we use history to illuminate the present, and potential futures, and when does history fail us?

Professor Kotkin's talk is the Institute for European Studies' inaugural Luigi Einaudi Distinguished Lecture.

This event will also be livestreamed. No pre-registration is required.

Rethinking the Origins and Significance of Corporate Climate Action

Charlotte Hulme, Assistant Professor of International Affairs at the United States Military Academy, will examine the origins and significance of the corporate climate action phenomenon. Based on her recently published book, she will discuss how and why, throughout the 2010s, a growing cohort of some of the world’s largest corporations adopted certain climate practices and converged around the idea that the private sector has a vital role in addressing climate change and advancing a low-carbon future.

She will address how policy developments that states widely understood as watersheds, particularly the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, confirmed what the private sector had long believed: that states lacked answers about how to achieve concerted, ambitious, and effective climate action. Dr. Hulme will discuss the potential implications of powerful corporations seeking to fill a perceived leadership vacuum in an area poised to shape future global trends and impact the international security landscape.

About the Speaker

Dr. Charlotte Hulme is an Assistant Professor of International Affairs at the United States Military Academy, where she also serves as the Deputy-Director of the Johnson Grand Strategy Program. Her recently published book, Corporate Climate Action, Transnational Politics, and World Order, examines how and why multinational corporations came to play a more prominent role in the climate change issue area during the 2010s. Charlotte received her Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University and M.Phil. in Politics and International Studies from Cambridge University, where she studied humanitarian intervention and the responsibility to protect in the African Union context.

Host

Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies