Why do some coercive demands succeed while others fail?

A dominant paradigm in the study of international relations explains coercive outcomes by pointing to the credibility and severity of threats. This lecture advances another paradigm called the Assurance Dilemma. Even highly credible and severe threats can fail when assurance is not credible. Coercers must assure their target that their threats are conditional on the target’s behavior. Yet, the actions that coercers take to bolster the credibility of their threats can undermine the credibility of their assurances not to punish the target. Cases of coercive bargaining over the nuclear programs of South Africa, Iraq, Libya, and Iran demonstrate the logic and effectiveness of strategies of assurance.

About the Speaker
Reid Pauly is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Brown University and the Dean’s Assistant Professor of Nuclear Security and Policy at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. He studies nuclear proliferation and nuclear strategy, coercion, and secrecy in international politics. His scholarship has been published in International Security, International Studies Quarterly, the European Journal of International Relations, and Foreign Affairs. Pauly earned his Ph.D. from MIT and has held fellowships at the Belfer Center (Harvard Kennedy School) and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (Stanford University). He is also a fellow with the Schmidt Futures International Strategy Forum.

Host
Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflicts Studies

Co-sponsored by Romance Studies

The archipelago of Puerto Rico is a colony in debt. Debt, according to Lucí Cavallero and Verónica Gago, goes hand in hand with the disciplining of bodies, especially female, queer, and dissident bodies. Therefore, colony and debt possess certain characteristics—confinement, violence and subjugation—that coincide with the definition of the Gothic mode in that both involve control, stalking and murder, like in horror and terror fiction. With this in mind, I propose a Gothic interpretation of three short stories by Afro Puerto Rican writer Yolanda Arroyo Pizarro, published between 2007 and 2015, in times of debt and austerity. They are stories about Black, Indigenous and/or poor women who are under attack, forced to serve as labor, spoils of war and scapegoats of all social ills. Furthermore, they are Gothic stories firstly because they are tales about violence against women–more specifically, mothers–and secondly because the protagonists themselves perpetrate violence against others, including infanticide and kidnapping. My analysis suggests that this series of Gothic tales establishes a new genealogy that dismantles the official discourse on Puerto Rican identity, which is rooted in the idea of the White, Hispanic, heteronormative family. This Gothic genealogy helps us elucidate the true colonial debt: the invisibilization of the bodies and the silencing of the voices of the most vulnerable throughout the history of the archipelago from its colonization in 1493 to the present day marked by debt and crisis.

Sandra M. Casanova-Vizcaíno is Associate Professor of Spanish at Binghamton University-State University of New York, where she teaches Latin American and Caribbean literature, film, and culture. Her research interests include contemporary Gothic and horror fiction, and representations of violence in Latin American and Caribbean literature and film. Her first book, El gótico transmigrado: narrativa puertorriqueña de horror, terror y misterio en el siglo XXI (Corregidor 2021), studies monstrosity, violence, and dystopia in 21st-century Puerto Rican fiction. She co-edited the volumes Latin American Gothic in Literature and Culture (Routledge 2018), and Aquelarre de cuentos: antología de terror insólito escrito por mujeres (Huso 2021), and she is the author of multiple articles and book chapters on contemporary Puerto Rican narrative.

Learn more about the “thin country” with “crazy geography.” The England of South America. A South American exception. The Republic of Poetry. Birthplace of neoliberal shock therapy. The descriptions for and of Chile abound. This spring 2025 program simultaneously reveals from whence such descriptions arose as well as both the truths and the falsehoods they may contain. The course examines the history of Chile from roughly 1800 to the present, always with an appreciation for its place in a broader world and always also with an attention to its regional and national specificities. During spring break, student who apply through experience will also travel to Santiago and the UNESCO heritage site Valparaíso.

Learn more about the “thin country” with “crazy geography.” The England of South America. A South American exception. The Republic of Poetry. Birthplace of neoliberal shock therapy. The descriptions for and of Chile abound. This spring 2025 program simultaneously reveals from whence such descriptions arose as well as both the truths and the falsehoods they may contain. The course examines the history of Chile from roughly 1800 to the present, always with an appreciation for its place in a broader world and always also with an attention to its regional and national specificities. During spring break, student who apply through experience will also travel to Santiago and the UNESCO heritage site Valparaíso.

Cosponsor: Department of Global Labor and Work

Latin America’s “left turn” at the beginning of the twenty-first century was unprecedented in its scope and duration, producing 32 presidential victories by left-of-center parties or leaders in 11 different countries between 1998 and 2015. Despite notable achievements in reducing poverty and extreme inequalities, leftist parties found it difficult to “deepen” democracy by empowering popular majorities, and they suffered a series of agonizing political defeats between 2015 and 2019 that allowed conservative forces to reclaim their customary hold on state power. This project traces the different origins and trajectories in power of “populist” and “social democratic” currents within the Latin American left. Through a comparative analysis of several leftist cases, it also examines how their alternative conceptions of democracy carried the seeds of their own demise, setting the stage for new forms of political polarization in the region.

Santiago Anria is Assistant Professor in the Department of Global Labor and Work at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations. He is the author of When Movements Become Parties: The Bolivian MAS in Comparative Perspective.