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Climate change deteriorates habitability. How will people respond who inhabit the affected spaces? (Im-)Mobility is one of the most prominently debated behavioral responses. Importantly, there is little scientific support for the claim that environmental deterioration by itself results in international mass migration. There is, however, good evidence that migrants are vulnerable to climate change impacts during their journeys. This paper explores the extent to which the notion of future, inevitable large-scale, climate-driven, South-North migration prevails in official positions – despite these nuanced findings. To this end, the paper takes stock of how national governments frame these futures in their national security strategies. The paper discusses framing differences between countries that typically receive migrants and those that are typically countries of origin. Governments, particularly from the Global North, frame migration often as an inevitable function of climate change. They do refer to migrants not as victims of this breakdown of sustainability or as protagonists of adaptation – but as the drivers of breakdown of peace in destination countries. In closing, the paper points to framings that are more aligned with the state of scientific research and that are more conducive to a sustainable, peaceful response to potential climate-related displacements. More generally, the observed framing of climate-related mobility is a textbook case for counterproductive framings of climate-related insecurities. If not well aligned with research, such framings risk justifying unsustainable policies that prioritize reactive means and the securitization of national space over ambitious climate policies that aim for long-term human security and sustainability.

About the speaker

Dr. Anselm Vogler is a Non-Resident Fellow at IFSH since February 2024. Until recently, he was Postdoctoral Researcher at Harvard University, Cambridge, USA and, prior to that, at the Department of Geography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. In 2024 he successfully defended his dissertation on climate security policies. From April 2020 until January 2024, he was research associate at IFSH and worked in the DFG cluster of excellency Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS) at University Hamburg. Anselm Vogler studied political science in Dresden and New York. He was awarded an International Recognition for his dissertation by the Hans Günter Brauch foundation as well as the Viktor Klemperer Medal for distinguished success during studies and an award at the Beijing-Humboldt Forum.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

Register for the virtual talk here: https://cornell.zoom.us/meeting/register/9scDvJ8BTNqY2h1Z4_o2Vg.

From Iran's Revolutionary Process to the Unraveling of the "Axis of Resistance" - Challenging Long-Held Assumptions about the Islamic Republic. This lecture explores the complex dynamics reshaping the Islamic Republic of Iran, drawing on the findings of years-long research that challenges conventional assumptions about the country’s domestic stability and foreign power. Since 2018, Iran has arguably experienced a “long-term revolutionary process” culminating in the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising. Four interconnected crises—economic, ecological, gender, and political—are fueling this revolutionary process, revealing a state whose apparent stability masks deep volatility. Internationally, Iran’s long-standing strategy of leveraging managed conflict with the West and forging partnerships with China and Russia has proven fragile. The unraveling of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” following “October 7” and the latest June 2025 12-Day War with Israel dramatically weakened the Islamic Republic’s regional influence and credibility. The lecture examines how entrenched narratives—authoritarian stability, rural and lower-class regime loyalty, the reformist–conservative dichotomy, and regional invincibility—fail to explain Tehran’s current challenges. By analyzing the interplay between domestic pressures and foreign-policy miscalculations, this talk offers a fresh understanding of a regime at a historic crossroads. About the speaker Dr. (PhD) Ali Fathollah-Nejad is a German–Iranian political scientist and author, working at the intersection of Middle East politics, international relations, and development studies. He is Founder and Director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG), a research network and voluntary-based think-tank devoted to exploring regional and global transformations, while promoting a new Western foreign policy that reconciles interests and values. He teaches Middle East politics and international security at the Hertie School – The University of Governance in Berlin. Among his publications are, most recently, the much-acclaimed (“best 10 books” of spring 2025, Der Tagespiegel daily) Iran – How the West is Betraying its Values and Interests [in German], The Islamic Republic in Existential Crisis (2023, European Union Institute for Security Studies), the much-acclaimed book Iran in an Emerging New World Order (2021, Palgrave), and The Islamic Republic of Iran Four Decades On (2020, Brookings), where he suggested the start of a long-term revolutionary process in Iran. Fathollah-Nejad is also the former Iran expert of the Brookings Institution in Doha, the German Council on Foreign Relations, and the American University of Beirut, as well as a 2022 McCloy Fellow on Global Trends of the American Council on Germany (ACG). He holds a Ph.D. from the Department of Development Studies at SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) and was the winner of the 2016/17 post-doctoral fellowship of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Iran Project. He has taught, among others, at universities in London, Berlin, Doha, Tübingen, and Prague. The author of around 300 articles in English, German and French – with translations into a dozen other languages –, Fathollah-Nejad is also a frequent commentator for leading outlets across the globe. Host Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies Register for the virtual talk: https://cornell.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_e7JrE2rEQE6HO8G1l42Utw

What explains the fact that the humanitarian response in some crises is well funded, while other emergencies are largely neglected? How do recent funding cuts affect the work of humanitarian organizations and the lives of affected people?

This lecture will give an overview of the literature on funding allocations of humanitarian aid, focusing on three groups of factors: humanitarian needs, donor countries’ interests, and media coverage. A recent study will be presented of why donors fund some humanitarian emergencies but neglect others. The study uses a novel statistical approach, relying on an underused dataset and considering funding requirements per emergency. While humanitarian needs and donor interests play a role, the most consistent factor influencing how donors allocate their funding is media coverage.

The lecture will provide an overview of practical ways of overcoming imbalances in funding allocations and delivering aid in more effective ways. Pooled funds like the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) can provide funding more quickly and more strictly based on needs. CERF relies heavily on tools to make funding decisions in a systematic, evidence-based way, and is the biggest financier of anticipatory action globally.

As funding for humanitarian action is being cut, it is more important than ever to ensure the most urgent humanitarian needs of affected people are identified and addressed.

About the speaker

Nicolas Rost is head of programme for the UN’s global humanitarian fund, CERF. At the Central Emergency Response Fund, Nico works on providing humanitarian financing as quickly as possible for new emergencies, for anticipatory and early action, and for neglected and underfunded crises. Previously, he worked on evaluations of humanitarian programmes, on coordinating development programmes in Palestine, humanitarian funds in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Yemen, for the UN’s refugee agency in the Central African Republic and Geneva, and for a German NGO in Madagascar. Nico is also a visiting scientist at the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative where his research focuses on early warning signs of humanitarian crises. He holds a Master’s degree in political science from the University of North Texas, and a Master’s and PhD in politics and public administration from the University of Konstanz. He has published a book and, together with his co-authors, articles on anticipating displacement, genocide and civil war, mediation and peacekeeping, in the International Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, and other journals. He lives in Brooklyn, New York, with his wife and their three sons.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

Co-host

Africana Studies and Research Center

Co-sponsor

Institute for African Development

The Critical Language Scholarship (CLS) Program provides fully funded immersive summer programs for U.S. undergraduate and graduate students to learn languages of strategic importance to the United States’ national security, economic prosperity, and engagement with the world. Each summer, over 500 American students enrolled at colleges and universities across the United States spend approximately eight weeks studying one of a dozen languages either overseas or virtually. Participants gain the equivalent of one year of language study, as the CLS Program maximizes language and cultural instruction in an intensive environment.

Can't attend? Email programs@einaudi.cornell.edu for more information.