Despite an ongoing policy debate within the United States about the value of alliances, research suggests that the complex network of security relationships that the United States and other major patrons have established since the end of World War II have important and understudied implications for a wide range of bargaining and cooperation dynamics. To tackle this pressing policy problem, this project delves into the strategic behavior of states in alliances with nuclear security guarantors or patrons. It asks two main questions. First, how do nuclear umbrellas produce risky security outcomes – namely, moral hazard – that can potentially entrap nuclear patrons into military engagement with adversaries? And second, how can alliances be designed to prevent these risky outcomes and yield positive dividends for the international system? To explore these questions, we pursue three lines of inquiry. First, we develop a new theoretical framework that explores the duality of nuclear umbrellas – their benefits and burdens. Second, we employ a series of large-n statistical tests exploring the United States as patron and its relationship with various treaty allies and their adversaries over time. Third, we examine this logic and mechanisms through a series of in-depth case studies, including Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and NATO. The manuscript concludes with valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers focused on grand strategy and the broad network of U.S. alliances.

About the speaker

Rupal N. Mehta is Chair of Research and Postdoctoral Fellows Program, and Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. She is an Associate Professor (on leave) in the Department of Political Science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Previously, she was a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow in the Belfer Center's International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Her research interests lie in international security and conflict, with a specialization in nuclear proliferation/counterproliferation, extended deterrence, emerging technologies, and elite decision-making. Her first book, Delaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal (Oxford University Press, 2020) explores the conditions under which nuclear aspirants stop their pursuit. Her work has appeared in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, the Journal of Strategic Studies, The Washington Quarterly and her commentary has appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, National Public Radio (NPR), BBC News, War on the Rocks, International Studies Quarterly, and the Washington Post's Monkey Cage. She received a Ph.D. and M.A. in Political Science from the University of California, San Diego, and B.A. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Host

Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies, part of the Einaudi Center for International Studies

The Fulbright U.S. Student Program supports U.S. citizens to study, conduct research in any field, or teach English in more than 150 countries. The program is open to graduate students, recent graduates, and young professionals. Undergraduate students who wish to begin the program immediately after graduation are encouraged to start the process in their junior year. Recent graduates are welcome to apply through Cornell.

The Fulbright program at Cornell is administered by the Mario Einaudi Center for International studies. Applicants are supported through all stages of the application and are encouraged to start early by contacting fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

Register for the virtual session.

Can’t attend? Contact fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

The Fulbright U.S. Student Program supports U.S. citizens to study, conduct research in any field, or teach English in more than 150 countries. The program is open to graduate students, recent graduates, and young professionals. Undergraduate students who wish to begin the program immediately after graduation are encouraged to start the process in their junior year. Recent graduates are welcome to apply through Cornell.

The Fulbright program at Cornell is administered by the Mario Einaudi Center for International studies. Applicants are supported through all stages of the application and are encouraged to start early by contacting fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

Register for the virtual session.

Can’t attend? Contact fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

The Fulbright U.S. Student Program supports U.S. citizens to study, conduct research in any field, or teach English in more than 150 countries. The program is open to graduate students, recent graduates, and young professionals. Undergraduate students who wish to begin the program immediately after graduation are encouraged to start the process in their junior year. Recent graduates are welcome to apply through Cornell.

The Fulbright program at Cornell is administered by the Mario Einaudi Center for International studies. Applicants are supported through all stages of the application and are encouraged to start early by contacting fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

Register for the virtual session.

Can’t attend? Contact fulbright@einaudi.cornell.edu.

Do you need to travel internationally for your graduate research or fieldwork?

The Einaudi Center sponsors international travel for individual Cornell graduate students. If you’re traveling between the United States and a host country for activities directly related to your dissertation or thesis research, Einaudi can help you get there. See full details here.

Register here. Can’t attend? Contact travelgrants@einaudi.cornell.edu to learn more.

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The Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies hosts info sessions for graduate and for undergraduate students to learn more about funding opportunities, international travel, research, and internships. View the full calendar of fall semester sessions.

The Laidlaw Leadership and Research Program promotes ethical leadership and international research around the world—starting with the passionate leaders and learners found on campuses like Cornell. Open to first- and second-year students, the two-year Laidlaw program provides generous support to carry out internationally focused research, develop leadership skills, engage with community projects overseas, and become part of a global network of like-minded scholars from twenty universities worldwide.

Register here. Can’t attend? Contact programs@einaudi.cornell.edu to learn more.

***

The Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies hosts info sessions for graduate and for undergraduate students to learn more about funding opportunities, international travel, research, and internships. View the full calendar of fall semester sessions.

The Laidlaw Leadership and Research Program promotes ethical leadership and international research around the world—starting with the passionate leaders and learners found on campuses like Cornell. Open to first- and second-year students, the two-year Laidlaw program provides generous support to carry out internationally focused research, develop leadership skills, engage with community projects overseas, and become part of a global network of like-minded scholars from twenty universities worldwide.

Can’t attend? Contact programs@einaudi.cornell.edu to learn more.

***

The Mario Einaudi Center for International Studies hosts info sessions for graduate and for undergraduate students to learn more about funding opportunities, international travel, research, and internships. View the full calendar of fall semester sessions.

Gatty Lecture Series

Join us for a talk by Michał Lubina, Associate Professor at the South and Southeast Asia Unit, Institute of Middle and Far East, Jagiellonian University (JU), Kraków, Poland

This Gatty Lecture will take place at the Kahin Center, 640 Stewart Ave. Lunch will be served. For questions, contact seap@cornell.edu.

Abstract

Moscow-Naypyitaw rapprochement represents one of the major consequences of the 2021 Myanmar coup and one of the unexpected outcomes of the Ukraine war. Until then, Russia-Myanmar relations remained good but limited (confined to arms trade, military training, diplomatic support, and nuclear dreaming). The breakthrough came with the fourth military coup in Myanmar, followed by the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine.

After February 2021, the isolated SAC turned to Moscow, and the Kremlin emerged as the primary international supporter of the Burmese military junta, acting as its political patron, with General Min Aung Hlaing now pilgrimaging to Russia (Moscow, Kazan and Vladivostok, and other places) almost on a routine basis. While Russia was initially still somewhat wary, Moscow’s global (semi-)isolation after the outbreak of the full-scale Ukraine war shifted this dynamic, elevating Myanmar's importance in Russian foreign policy calculations as well. Thus, a mutually convenient asymmetric relationship emerged, and Russia-Myanmar relations have reached an unprecedented level of closeness, unparalleled in their bilateral history. This is best illustrated by the personal chemistry between their leaders, even if expressed is such extraordinary ways as in March 2025, when Min Aung Hlaing compared Vladimir Putin to a rat king which was meant to be an unusual way to emphasize the political friendship with the Russian leader.

The unexpected and unusual combination of Russia and Myanmar caught observers by surprise. Why have these two countries, so geographically and culturally distant, with limited past contacts, became so close? What triggered their rapprochement? And what does it matter – to both Moscow and Naypyidaw, to the region, and even to the world? What are the consequences of this emerging partnership? And where is China in all this? What exact role does Beijing play in this unexpected Naypyidaw-Moscow rapprochement?

This talk will try to answer these questions.

About the Speaker

Michał Lubina is an associate professor at the Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland. He is the author of eleven books, including seven on Myanmar, and three on Russia-China relations. His most important English-language books are “A Political Biography of Aung San Suu Kyi: A Hybrid Politician” (Routledge, 2020) and “The Moral Democracy” (2019), translated into Burmese and published in Yangon in 2021.